Are bitcoin whales actually hesitating right now or just playing it smart? the data looks weird

Recent analysis from Joao Wedson is showing something a bit uncomfortable – wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have pretty much stopped adding. That band usually lines up with funds, desks and more “professional” money. Historically when these guys stop pressing the buy button for a while it hasn’t been a great vibe for price later.

The spooky part is it looks a lot like 2021. Back then the same wallet range cooled off on accumulation and a few months later we slid into a proper bear market. Not saying copy paste crash incoming but it’s one of those signals you don’t just ignore.

But there’s a twist here. After that December nuke where institutions dumped around 79,000 BTC and we got hit with roughly a 15% correction, some of the bigger players actually started buying back in. Over the last 30 days or so they’ve scooped up something like 34,000 BTC again which means at least some whales think these levels are decent entry or reload zones.

So on one side you’ve got those mid sized 100–1,000 BTC wallets acting cautious and on the other side you’ve got larger institutional guys quietly stacking the dip. The pause from the mid tier whales feels like weaker medium term demand but the bigger wallets stepping in should add some kind of floor underneath.

The annoying part is retail is still basically asleep. Most of this is just big wallets and structured money slapping each other around so price action feels less like a classic cycle and more like a liquidity game.

Are whales positioning for something big or just managing risk after a crazy run up hard to say for sure but these mixed signals are definitely worth keeping an eye on