Bitcoin Down 40% From Peak: PlanB Details Four Possible Bear Market Floors

Crypto analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB, has discussed four possible outcomes for Bitcoin’s current bear market. The analysis follows a sharp drawdown of over 40% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of above $126,000

Scenario One: 80% Correction From the Peak
The first scenario assumes Bitcoin repeats its deepest historical declines. An 80% drop from the $126,000 high would push the price toward $25,000.

Scenario Two: Return to Long-Term Averages
The second scenario targets a move down to the 200-week moving average and realized price. These levels currently sit between $50,000 and $60,000.

Scenario Three: Support Above the Prior Cycle High
The third path assumes a shallow bear market. Under this view, Bitcoin holds just above the previous cycle’s all-time high near $69,000, placing a potential floor around $70,000.

Scenario Four: Local Bottom Already Formed
The fourth scenario suggests Bitcoin may have already bottomed. Price briefly touched $72,900 earlier this week, which PlanB said could mark a local low if the bear market remains shallow.

Although i rotated part of my bitget portfolio into Gold at the end of Q4, its not because i saw this coming... either ways its time to HODL through either of the Scenarios

any better Scenario I'm missing?