DCA vs. dip, capital outlay, and horizons (the only replicable way to riches)

I've been thinking quite a bit about the zen level of my investing given the general malaise of the past year and figured I'd share some personal experience and tenets of wealth generation from both crypto and non-crypto investing (the latter for about 20 years now):

1. DCA is king

Here's something to consider: if you were lucky enough to buy the dip (lowest price) every day for 1 year vs. if you were unlucky enough to buy the top (highest price) every day for 1 year, at the end of the year the result would be almost identical. This is known as "smoothing the curve".

If you want to time capital investment on a longer scale, such as "I'll wait for it to really dip before I buy", the less you're smoothing the curve and the more you're gambling. On top of that, you're voluntarily "leaving money on the table" since $1 today is worth more than $1 tomorrow (the "time value of money").

Stats are funny like that. Pick a DCA schedule and invest regardless of market moves. The more frequent (even if it's a smaller amount each time), the closer you'll move to the rest of the market. Looking at what happened to BTC last bull run, I'd be happy moving close to the market.

2. You need $ to make $

We forget this a lot. For starters, this idea of 10x, 100x, etc. it just absurd. 2x is a miracle. When we look at prior moves of something like BTC, sure, a few people retired - were you one of those screwing around with an unknown tech 10 years ago with no indication that it would ever amount to anything, but still kept at it because it seemed cool? Probably not. The chances of you getting in early enough and the project going 10x+ and there being enough liquidity for you to cash out is close to 0.

Even if we pretend that you can 10x (very optimistic), the initial outlay has to be substantial. Put in $100 and get $1k back, great! I can maybe use that for a month of rent. Put in $1k and get $10k back, even better! I can pay off some CC debt, maybe treat myself a bit, invest a bunch of it back in, and afford good presents for everyone for the next year. Put in $10k and get $100k, ok now this is nice. I can pay off my car, some part of my mortgage, student loans, etc. Maybe go on a nice vacation this year, and invest a bunch back. And so on, but you need that initial outlay. How many of you have $10k in crypto which you truly believe will 10x on something other than hopium on a long enough timeline to actually matter? Yea, probably not the majority. Even less in the $100k club - that's a crazy risk for crypto, unless you're already a millionaire.

So the point is upskill and get a higher paying job/build a solid career and keep moving up. That's really your only bet.

3. Time horizon

Nothing of substance will happen to your investments for 10 years at least. It doesn't matter what the next bull run looks like. Large market cycles are about 10 years (although they seem to be shortening) and a single run just won't do it. You need 2 (probably more) to get any real results in crypto, and that's assuming we'll see the huge runs from the past.

In General

I think crypto is awesome. I've spent enough time in the space learning the tech, I work in fintech so I get exposure to it and I see what's being built, and the future looks very promising worldwide. If you spend some time listening to long form conversations with prominent (successful) individuals in the space, you'll hear pretty much the same stuff. It's coming. It's going to be massive. There's no stopping it. But if you think you're going to retire in the next run, unless you have a ton invested right now (which you don't need, and probably don't have), it's going to be a minute.