Dynamic DCA returned me ~170% vs ~70% for normal DCA over 4 years, but the emotional side nearly broke me. What risk metrics are you guys using?

About two years ago, I wrote A Practical Guide to Dynamic DCA + Risk Metric Tier List on here. With the current drawdown and all the "how should I DCA, what's your strategy?" posts popping up, I wanted to follow up with what actually happened since then.

What's the strategy?

Dynamic DCA is about adjusting your investment based on current market conditions. You use a risk metric to figure out whether the market is overbought or oversold, then invest more when risk is low and invest less (or nothing, or sell) when risk is high. From my original post:

"Dynamic DCA isn't about timing the market perfectly. It's about making informed decisions based on market conditions."

The longer explanation is in that post if you want to deep-dive. I linked several risk metrics one could use to define buy/sell amounts.

My results

I've been running a moderate strategy since 2022. Over 4 years, it returned about 170% in profit. Normal DCA over the same period? Around 70%. Same dollar amount going in, but I ended up with significantly more BTC because I was buying heavier when prices were low and pulling back when they were high.

The part nobody talks about

The results sound clean in hindsight. Living through it was a different story.

Late 2022. FTX had just imploded. Sentiment was in the gutter. Every headline said crypto was done. And my strategy was telling me to buy more.

I remember staring at the screen thinking "this is the time the model is just wrong." I didn't override it. But I'd be lying if I said it was easy.

That's the real edge of this approach. Not the math. Whether you can actually follow your own rules when your gut is screaming at you to stop. Having the thresholds set in advance is what saved me. I didn't have to make a decision in the moment. I just had to not undo the decision I'd already made.

My strategy is telling me to buy more right now, too. Feels just as uncomfortable.

Risk metrics: what's still working

My original post had a tier list. Most of it still holds up:

• Benjamin Cowen's indicator is still solid if you're willing to pay for it but it's very expensive
• I personally use AlphaSquared because I like the features and price tag. That said, the principle works regardless of which metric you pick.
• Fear and Greed Index is more of a sentiment gauge. I wouldn't build a DCA strategy around it alone, but it's useful context.

The actual takeaway

You don't need a perfect risk metric. You need one that's roughly right and that you'll actually stick to. I didn't touch my strategy once it was set.

Pick a metric. Set your thresholds. Commit for a full cycle. The hard part is trusting the system when your gut tells you to do the opposite.

Curious: What risk metrics are others here actually using for DCA? And has anyone else stuck with the same strategy through a full cycle without tweaking it? That discipline piece has been the real test for me. Would love to hear how others handle it.