Matrix Moment: Realizing There's No Spoon ... or Cycle

The cycle does not involve just a massive decrease in the fiat price of Bitcoin. Many things broke the cycle, going back to 2021, when the China ban caused a crash in the middle of the year that should have been the most green. We had an ATH before the halving, driven by ETF approvals. We experienced a spike following Trump's election. We've had a very middling 2025, another year that was supposed to be moon-bound. I think the 2020 rise was heavily influenced by Jerome Powell, as was the 2022 descent. FTX, TerraLuna, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and BlockFi also led to the 2022 bottom. We should have peaked already in 2025 and be on the descent, but we've seen not much of a rise and certainly no blow-off top.

The pattern is that macro events are what affect Bitcoin now. The halving may have mattered a lot in the past; it probably did. But going from 50 bitcoins released every 10 minutes on average to 25 is a significant shift compared to going from 6 and a quarter to 3 and an eighth.

And "extended cycle" is an oxymoron.

So, time to put away the calendars when it comes to Bitcoin's price direction. Unless you want to look up when the latest CPI nonsense is coming out or when the FOMC is meeting. It's geopolitics, monetary policy, and black swan events now. That's the truth.