My thoughts on where we are and heading to in this cycle (update)

I posted a thread on here a few weeks ago about my thoughts pertaining to where the market was heading to after we had the largest liquidation event in crypto history. This will be an update to this and where I now see things potentially heading, I have both a bull and bear case.

Bull case-

Earlier in October we had the largest liquidation even in crypto history and as I'm writing this we are in another major sell off, particularly with alts. Alts right now are at cycle lows with regards to their BTC pairings. This all occurred WITHOUT any major euphoria or excessive greed in the market. Retail was and still is absent and overall sentiment right now is insanely low.

However, despite this negativity there are a lot of bullish variables in the works. The government shutdown has led to a pause in liquidity and QT is set to end in less than one month, as well as further rate cuts being on the table Global liquidity is continuing to rise as well. In addition to this, there are a wave of alt coin ETFs that very likely will be approved once the shutdown ends. Basically, what I'm seeing right now is big money getting an opportunity to load up on alts at bargain basement prices BEFORE this wave of ETFs is approved.

Alts right recently hit their cycle lows according to Ben Cowen's chart, possibly have a little more to go over the next few weeks. However, in this scenario I imagine there being a very explosive bull run going into Q1 of 2026. With so many people having already thrown in the towel or about to as I'm writing this, I expect the FOMO and panic buying to be absolutely insane. As mentioned, retail is basically absent from this space, but the sentiment can change very quickly.

Bear case-

My bear case is much simpler. Earlier in this summer I was partially questioning that we might get a very underwhelming cycle, with a very mild alt season, talking things like ETH at maybe 6k, etc. However, in our current time frame I'm expecting the bull case I outlined above to play out OR where we have already topped out and it truly is over.

However, while this may sound awful, in this scenario I don't think the carnage is going to be that crazy. Since we never really got euphoric or saw some insane greed in this cycle, I'm expecting the downside to very mild. Some price targets I see are maybe bottoming out around 60-70k for BTC, ETH at 2k, XRP $1.50, ADA $.35-.40, Sol under $100, etc.

My plan-

My positions this cycle averaged out at much lower prices compared to where we currently are. I plan on continuing to hold my positions at this point, though I added a bit recently with this dip here. However, I plan on being a bit cautious and not getting too aggressive for fear of the market potentially tanking from here further. If it goes up and we do see a bull run, I have my positions in place. If it does tank and we go into full bear market, I'll be in a position to comfortably accumulate more at even steeper discounts from here and position for the next cycle.