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Prediction market for correlation between BTCvsETH and ETHvsSOL(outperformance options)

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by COINS NEWS 195 Views

Prediction market for correlation between BTCvsETH and ETHvsSOL(outperformance options)

I've been trading/market making on polymarket for a while, especially looking at the crypto/financial live markets (5m and 15m).

What I noticed is that all the markets currently availbale on polymarket right now are "single asset" which means they offer a way to price the (very granular) volatility of one asset (e.g. BTC over the next 5 minutes), but it's currently impossible to capture finer details about the expected relative performance of BTC vs ETH for example.

Those options are in reality not a new concept. They are typically referred to as "Outperformance options" and there is quite a lot of math already on how to price them, in particular the Margrabe’s theory and formulation.

So I decided to take a spin to this and create a marketplace specifically suited to relative asset correlation/ outperfoemance. For now it's a prototype and it's available on Base only. I'm currently the only market maker (using Margrabe’s formula in a pretty basic fashion tbh) but I'd love if anyone here would be interested in becoming a maker or provide any thoughts. In case you want to try it or market make on it please let me know.

I envision it could be cool to have all sort prediction of asset cross correlation (think for example SPX vs BTC over the next 15min) and this would allow to have net new information coming out as an emergent property. What do you guys think? Any feedback or thoughts, I'd be eager to know!

submitted by /u/yvthousands
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