After the Binance hack, I checked my own node: long-term holders barely moved a coin

I run a full node and track every coin that gets spent, sorted by how long it had been held. I've mapped all 3billion UTXOs in Bitcoins history, along with minute by minute BTC price to Jan 2012. The data an LLM cannot get you, but a bare metal full node (I built by hand) plus my data engineer experience can. Here's what happened in the 12 hours after the Binance hot wallet was drained (20:15 UTC Oct 29 to 08:15 UTC Oct 30).

Long-term holders (coins held 155+ days):

- 99.94% of their 16.3M BTC didn't move.

- Coins held 1 year or more moved 6,990 BTC. That's an ordinary half-day: 21 of the previous 60 saw more.

- Supply held 1 year or more grew 12,566 BTC on Oct 29.

Short-term coins did the moving:

- 94% of the BTC that moved had been held under 5 months.

- Coins held 1 day to 1 month moved 63,317 BTC, the most of any half-day in the past 30 days.

- Coins under a month old realized about $294M in losses (spent below what they cost). Coins held 1 year or more realized about $119M in profit.

Why other totals you've seen are bigger: if you add up every hop of a peel chain, the same coins get counted over and over. Counting every hop gives 658,302 BTC. Counting each coin once gives 166,656. About 19k of that was the drained hot wallet itself, so it's the hacker, not holders.

Caveats: moving a coin on-chain isn't always a sale. It can be a wallet shuffle or an exchange deposit. This shows who held, not who bought.

I'll rerun it tonight after the US market close to see if the picture changes. Happy to answer questions about the method.