History Suggests the End of the Bear Market by EOY 2026

We are now 252 days into the Bear Market. I will cut to the chase and let you guys know how this conclusion was drawn. For this, I analyzed the past 7 bear markets in the last 10 years (including this one), and studied how long it takes for the current price of BTC to exceed the 200D moving average during bear markets (this is the signal for the end of the bear market).

From each bear market’s market bottom, it historically takes 65 to 166 days for BTC to recover. Our last bottom was $58K back on June 30, 2026. Assuming BTC doesn't crash any lower than $58K in this bear cycle, at an average between 65 and 166 days, the end of the bear market would be November 5, 2026. At the longest recorded recovery time of 166 days, the end would be December 26, 2026.

While past performance is not indicative of future performance, current data also shows that this bear market is not that bad relatively speaking, as compared to previous bears such as the most recent 2022 FTX crash where BTC declined 76.7% from its highs compared to our current bear market where BTC only declined 51.2% from its highs.

If you guys would like to know more about how I defined bear markets and how BTC declined in each bear market you may read my full analysis on Coingecko at:
https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-long-do-bitcoin-bear-markets-last