I checked every past time Bitcoin was this close to its long-term floor. A year later it was higher in 8 of 8.

Bitcoin is currently close to the floor line of a power-law model (the line under every daily close since 2011). I wanted to know what actually happened after earlier days at the same spot, so I counted:

• 8 separate periods since 2011 (2011, 2012 twice, 2015 twice, 2020, 2022, 2023)
• 12 months later the price was higher in all 8
• but not in a straight line: from Sept 2022 it first fell another 16%

Translated to today (growth has slowed a lot since 2012, so I map each past move onto today's lines instead of copying 10x years), the middle half of outcomes ends between $120k and $234k a year from now.

The obvious caveat: 8 periods is a small sample. It's a frequency from the past, not a prediction.

Full table, chart and the method: https://fairvalue.cc/bitcoin-outlook

Curious what people think is missing from this kind of analysis.