Is there a chance that we will see no bullrun in the upcoming 4-year-cycle end?

Too many macro economists are very pessimistic about the next months and years to come.

But most people in crypto have their 4-year-cycle in mind, that every 4 years when the Bitcoin mining rewards are cut in half, a few months after the bullrun will spark.

It happend 3 times already in the (short) history of cryptocurrencies. This "historical" track record of just 15 years too short of a time frame for most analysts to say how crypto evolves.

Everybody expected a recession to appear last year and it did not happen. It even turned into a small bullrun for the market 2023 Q1.

Now things are almost back as they were and people expect more pain to come...even for a longer time.

The main question now: Will crypto be experience a bullrun in 2024/2025 according for the 4-year-cycle? -or- This time is different and we will not have a bullrun, we skip this cycle and will only enter a bullrun in 2028/2029?